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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 1: TOC 3-1</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693588" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693588" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693588&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Table of Contents 3-1" selectedfileurl=" files/140693588.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 2: TOC 3-2</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693589" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693589" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693589&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Table of Contents 3-2" selectedfileurl=" files/140693589.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 3: Fig 3-01</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693533" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693533" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693533&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-01 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in ARIZONA Gallego (D) vs. Lake (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693533.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 4: Fig 3-02</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693534" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693534" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693534&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-02 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in CALIFORNIA Schiff (D) vs. Garvey (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693534.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 5: Fig 3-03</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693535" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693535" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693535&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-03 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in CONNECTICUT Murphy (D) vs. Corey (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693535.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 6: Fig 3-04</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693536" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693536" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693536&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-04 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in DELAWARE Blunt Rochester (D) vs. Hansen (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693536.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 7: Fig 3-05</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693537" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693537" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693537&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-05 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in FLORIDA Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs. Scott (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693537.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 8: Fig 3-06</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693538" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693538" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693538&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-06 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in INDIANA McCray (D) vs. Banks (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693538.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 9: Fig 3-07</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693539" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693539" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693539&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-07 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MAINE Costello (D) vs. Kouzounas (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693539.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 10: Fig 3-08</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693540" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693540" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693540&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-08 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MARYLAND Alsobrooks (D) vs. Hogan (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693540.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 11: Fig 3-09</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693541" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693541" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693541&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-09 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MASSACHUSETTS Warren (D) vs. Deaton (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693541.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 12: Fig 3-10</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693542" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693542" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693542&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-10 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MICHIGAN Slotkin (D) vs. Rogers (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693542.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 13: Fig 3-11</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693543" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693543" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693543&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-11 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MINNESOTA Klobuchar (D) vs. White (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693543.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 14: Fig 3-12</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693544" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693544" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693544&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-12 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MISSISSIPPI Pinkins (D) vs. Wicker (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693544.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 15: Fig 3-13</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693545" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693545" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693545&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-13 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MISSOURI Kunce (D) vs. Hawley (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693545.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 16: Fig 3-14</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693546" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693546" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693546&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-14 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MONTANA Tester (D) vs. Sheehy (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693546.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 17: Fig 3-15</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693547" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693547" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693547&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-15 Probability Independent Wins Senate Race in NEBRASKA Osborn (I) vs. Fischer (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693547.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 18: Fig 3-16</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693548" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693548" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693548&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-16 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEVADA Rosen (D) vs. Brown (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693548.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 19: Fig 3-17</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693549" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693549" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693549&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-17 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEW JERSEY Kim (D) vs. Bashaw (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693549.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 20: Fig 3-18</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693550" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693550" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693550&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-18 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEW MEXICO Heinrich (D) vs. Domenici (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693550.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 21: Fig 3-19</font></strong></span></p>
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<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693551" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693551" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693551&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-19 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEW YORK Gillibrand (D) vs. Sapraicone (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693551.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 22: Fig 3-20</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693552" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693552" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693552&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-20 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NORTH DAKOTA Christiansen (D) vs. Cramer (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693552.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 23: Fig 3-21</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693553" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693553" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693553&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-21 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in OHIO Brown (D) vs. Moreno (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693553.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 24: Fig 3-22</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693554" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693554" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693554&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-22 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in PENNSYLVANIA Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693554.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 25: Fig 3-23</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693555" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693555" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693555&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-23 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in RHODE ISLAND Whitehouse (D) vs. Morgan (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693555.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 26: Fig 3-24</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693556" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693556" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693556&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-24 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in TENNESSEE Johnson (D) vs. Blackburn (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693556.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 27: Fig 3-25</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693557" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693557" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693557&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-25 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in TEXAS Allred (D) vs. Cruz (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693557.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 28: Fig 3-26</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693558" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693558" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693558&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-26 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in UTAH Gleich (D) vs. Curtis (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693558.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 29: Fig 3-27</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693559" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693559" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693559&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-27 Probability Independent Wins Senate Race in VERMONT Sanders (I) vs. Malloy (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693559.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 30: Fig 3-28</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693560" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693560" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693560&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-28 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in VIRGINIA Kaine (D) vs. Cao (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693560.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 31: Fig 3-29</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693561" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693561" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693561&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-29 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in WASHINGTON Cantwell (D) vs. Garcia (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693561.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 32: Fig 3-30</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693562" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693562" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693562&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-30 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in WEST VIRGINIA Elliott (D) vs. Justice (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693562.png"
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<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 33: Fig 3-31</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693563" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693563" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693563&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-31 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in WISCONSIN Baldwin (D) vs. Hovde (R) from 538.com" selectedfileurl=" files/140693563.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693563&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 34: Fig 3-32</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693564" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693564" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693564&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-32 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in ARIZONA Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693564.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693564&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 35: Fig 3-33</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693565" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693565" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693565&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-33 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in CALIFORNIA Adam Schiff (D) vs. Steve Garvey (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693565.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693565&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 36: Fig 3-34</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693566" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693566" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693566&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-34 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in FLORIDA Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs. Scott (R-Inc) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693566.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693566&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 37: Fig 3-35</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693567" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693567" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693567&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-35 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MAINE David Costello (D) vs. Demi Kouzounas (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693567.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693567&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 38: Fig 3-36</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693568" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693568" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693568&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-36 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MARYLAND Angela Alsobrooks (D) vs. Larry Hogan (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693568.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693568&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 39: Fig 3-37</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693569" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693569" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693569&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-37 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MICHIGAN Slotkin (D) vs. Rogers (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693569.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693569&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 40: Fig 3-38</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693570" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693570" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693570&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-38 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MINNESOTA Amy Klobuchar (D-Inc) vs. Royce White (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693570.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693570&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 41: Fig 3-39</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693571" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693571" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693571&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-39 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MISSISSIPPI Ty Pinkins (D) vs. Roger Wicker (R-Inc) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693571.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693571&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 42: Fig 3-40</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693572" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693572" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693572&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-40 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MISSOURI Lucas Kunce (D) vs. Josh Hawley (R-Inc) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693572.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693572&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 43: Fig 3-41</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693573" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693573" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693573&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-41 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in MONTANA Tester (D-Inc) vs. Sheehy (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693573.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693573&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 44: Fig 3-42</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693574" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693574" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693574&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-42 Probability Independent Wins Senate Race in NEBRASKA Dan Osborn (I) vs. Deb Fischer (R-Inc) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693574.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693574&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 45: Fig 3-43</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693575" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693575" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693575&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-43 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEVADA Jacky Rosen (D-inc) vs. Sam Brown (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693575.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693575&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 46: Fig 3-44</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693576" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693576" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693576&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-44 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEW JERSEY Kim (D) vs. Bashaw (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693576.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693576&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 47: Fig 3-45</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693577" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693577" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693577&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-45 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEW MEXICO Martin Heinrich (D-Inc) vs. Nella Domenici (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693577.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693577&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 48: Fig 3-46</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693578" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693578" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693578&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-46 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in NEW YORK Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Inc) vs. Mike Sapraicone (R) from Politics_Poll" selectedfileurl=" files/140693578.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693578&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 49: Fig 3-47</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693579" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693579" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693579&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-47 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in OHIO Sherrod Brown (D-Inc) vs. Matt Dolan (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693579.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693579&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 50: Fig 3-48</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693580" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693580" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693580&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-48 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in PENNSYLVANIA Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693580.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693580&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 51: Fig 3-49</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693581" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693581" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693581&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-49 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in RHODE ISLAND Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Inc) vs. Generic Republican 34) from Politi" selectedfileurl=" files/140693581.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693581&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 52: Fig 3-50</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693582" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693582" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693582&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-50 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in TENNESSEE Gloria Johnson (D) vs. Marsha Blackburn (R-Inc) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693582.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693582&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 53: Fig 3-51</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693583" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693583" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693583&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-51 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in TEXAS Colin Allred (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R-Inc) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693583.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693583&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 54: Fig 3-52</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693584" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693584" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693584&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-52 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in VIRGINIA Tim Kaine (D-Inc) vs. Hung Cao (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693584.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693584&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 55: Fig 3-53</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693585" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693585" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693585&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-53 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in WASHINGTON Maria Cantwell (D-Inc) vs. Raul Garcia (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693585.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693585&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 56: Fig 3-54</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693586" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693586" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693586&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-54 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in WEST VIRGINIA Glenn Elliot (D) vs. Jim Justice (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693586.png"
mce_src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=2C6E5071B5BE6B277190DD2762862A2C?id=140693586&amp;_dt=1728247285801" /></h2>
<hr />
<p><span class="pagetitle"><strong><font class="pagetitle" size="1">Page 57: Fig 3-55</font></strong></span></p>
<p></p>
<h2><img width="900" title="" assetid="140693587" src="/matrix/servlet/ShowAsset;jsessionid=277C27758754B6EE4090E0AB774C87D5?id=140693587" wspext="{&quot;aid&quot;:&quot;140693587&quot;}" height="615" border="0" alt="Fig 3-55 Probability Democrat Wins Senate Race in WISCONSIN Baldwin (D-Inc) vs. Hovde (R) from Politics_Polls" selectedfileurl=" files/140693587.png"

DEEP DIVE INTO ELECTION 2024 VOTER POLLS - ENTIRELY DATA-DRIVEN

Volume 1:  ELECTION SURVEY ANALYSIS


Page 1: TOC 1-1

Table of Contents 1-1

Page 2: TOC 1-2

Table of Contents 1-2

Page 3: TOC 1-3

Table of Contents 1-3

Page 4: TOC 1-4

Table of Contents 1-4

Page 5: TOC 1-5

Table of Contents 1-5

Section 1: Description of Methodology

Page 6: Fig 1-001

Fig 1-001 Beta distribution for a percentage p=10%

Page 7: Fig 1-002

Fig 1-002 Beta distribution for a percentage p=90%

Page 8: Fig 1-003

Fig 1-003 Probability of winning with a 2% polling advantage using the distribution of sampled values of Beta2-Beta1

Page 9: Fig 1-004

Fig 1-004 Probability of winning with a 1%, 2% or 4% polling advantage (a) centered at P, for CoV (s) of 3% or 5%

Section 2: State-level Presidential Election Polls from 538.com

Page 10: Fig 1-005

Fig 1-005 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ALABAMA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 11: Fig 1-006

Fig 1-006 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ALASKA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 12: Fig 1-007

Fig 1-007 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ARIZONA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 13: Fig 1-008

Fig 1-008 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ARKANSAS Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 14: Fig 1-009

Fig 1-009 Probability Biden/Harris Wins CALIFORNIA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 15: Fig 1-010

Fig 1-010 Probability Biden/Harris Wins COLORADO Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 16: Fig 1-011

Fig 1-011 Probability Biden/Harris Wins DELAWARE Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 17: Fig 1-012

Fig 1-012 Probability Biden/Harris Wins FLORIDA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 18: Fig 1-013

Fig 1-013 Probability Biden/Harris Wins GEORGIA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 19: Fig 1-014

Fig 1-014 Probability Biden/Harris Wins HAWAII Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 20: Fig 1-015

Fig 1-015 Probability Biden/Harris Wins IDAHO Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 21: Fig 1-016

Fig 1-016 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ILLINOIS Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 22: Fig 1-017

Fig 1-017 Probability Biden/Harris Wins INDIANA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 23: Fig 1-018

Fig 1-018 Probability Biden/Harris Wins IOWA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 24: Fig 1-019

Fig 1-019 Probability Biden/Harris Wins KANSAS Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 25: Fig 1-020

Fig 1-020 Probability Biden/Harris Wins KENTUCKY Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 26: Fig 1-021

Fig 1-021 Probability Biden/Harris Wins LOUISIANA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 27: Fig 1-022

Fig 1-022 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MAINE Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 28: Fig 1-023

Fig 1-023 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MAINE CD-1 Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 29: Fig 1-024

Fig 1-024 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MAINE CD-2 Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 30: Fig 1-025

Fig 1-025 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MARYLAND Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 31: Fig 1-026

Fig 1-026 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MASSACHUSETTS Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 32: Fig 1-027

Fig 1-027 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MICHIGAN Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 33: Fig 1-028

Fig 1-028 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MINNESOTA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 34: Fig 1-029

Fig 1-029 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MISSOURI Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 35: Fig 1-030

Fig 1-030 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MONTANA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 36: Fig 1-031

Fig 1-031 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEBRASKA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 37: Fig 1-032

Fig 1-032 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEBRASKA CD-2 Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 38: Fig 1-033

Fig 1-033 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEVADA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 39: Fig 1-034

Fig 1-034 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW HAMPSHIRE Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 40: Fig 1-035

Fig 1-035 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW JERSEY Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 41: Fig 1-036

Fig 1-036 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW MEXICO Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 42: Fig 1-037

Fig 1-037 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW YORK Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 43: Fig 1-038

Fig 1-038 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NORTH CAROLINA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 44: Fig 1-039

Fig 1-039 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NORTH DAKOTA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 45: Fig 1-040

Fig 1-040 Probability Biden/Harris Wins OHIO Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 46: Fig 1-041

Fig 1-041 Probability Biden/Harris Wins OKLAHOMA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 47: Fig 1-042

Fig 1-042 Probability Biden/Harris Wins OREGON Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 48: Fig 1-043

Fig 1-043 Probability Biden/Harris Wins PENNSYLVANIA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 49: Fig 1-044

Fig 1-044 Probability Biden/Harris Wins RHODE ISLAND Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 50: Fig 1-045

Fig 1-045 Probability Biden/Harris Wins SOUTH CAROLINA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 51: Fig 1-046

Fig 1-046 Probability Biden/Harris Wins SOUTH DAKOTA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 52: Fig 1-047

Fig 1-047 Probability Biden/Harris Wins TENNESSEE Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 53: Fig 1-048

Fig 1-048 Probability Biden/Harris Wins TEXAS Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 54: Fig 1-049

Fig 1-049 Probability Biden/Harris Wins UTAH Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 55: Fig 1-050

Fig 1-050 Probability Biden/Harris Wins VERMONT Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 56: Fig 1-051

Fig 1-051 Probability Biden/Harris Wins VIRGINIA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 57: Fig 1-052

Fig 1-052 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WASHINGTON Using State Election Polls from 538.com

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Fig 1-053 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WEST VIRGINIA Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 59: Fig 1-054

Fig 1-054 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WISCONSIN Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 60: Fig 1-055

Fig 1-055 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WYOMING Using State Election Polls from 538.com

Page 61: Fig 1-056

Fig 1-056 Expected Electoral Votes Using Value of P (or S, L) on the State Survey Plots from 538.com

Page 62: Fig 1-057

Fig 1-057 Same as Above, But with Winner-Takes-All Scoring from 538_com

Page 63: Fig 1-058

Fig 1-058 Changes from Biden's 2020 Electoral Votes Using Winner-Takes-All Scoring from 538.com

Section 3: National Presidential Election Polls from 538.com

Page 64: Fig 1-059

Fig 1-059 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Using National Election Polls from 538.com

Page 65: Fig 1-060

Fig 1-060 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Using National Election Polls from 538.com (No Morning Consult)

Page 66: Fig 1-061

Fig 1-061 Probability Harris Wins Based on National Forecast from 538.com

Page 67: Fig 1-062

Fig 1-062 Electoral College Votes for Harris and Trump Using State Vote Forecasts from 538.com

Section 4: National Presidential Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 68: Fig 1-063

Fig 1-063 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Popular Vote Using National Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 69: Fig 1-064

Fig 1-064 Pollsters with Positive Bias Ranked by Mean Deviation above Trendline from Politics_Polls

Section 5: State-level Presidential Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 70: Fig 1-065

Fig 1-065 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ALABAMA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 71: Fig 1-066

Fig 1-066 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ALASKA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 72: Fig 1-067

Fig 1-067 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ARIZONA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 73: Fig 1-068

Fig 1-068 Probability Biden/Harris Wins CALIFORNIA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 74: Fig 1-069

Fig 1-069 Probability Biden/Harris Wins COLORADO Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 75: Fig 1-070

Fig 1-070 Probability Biden/Harris Wins FLORIDA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 76: Fig 1-071

Fig 1-071 Probability Biden/Harris Wins GEORGIA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 77: Fig 1-072

Fig 1-072 Probability Biden/Harris Wins HAWAII Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 78: Fig 1-073

Fig 1-073 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ILLINOIS Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 79: Fig 1-074

Fig 1-074 Probability Biden/Harris Wins INDIANA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 80: Fig 1-075

Fig 1-075 Probability Biden/Harris Wins IOWA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 81: Fig 1-076

Fig 1-076 Probability Biden/Harris Wins LOUISIANA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 82: Fig 1-077

Fig 1-077 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MAINE Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 83: Fig 1-078

Fig 1-078 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MARYLAND Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 84: Fig 1-079

Fig 1-079 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MASSACHUSETTS Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 85: Fig 1-080

Fig 1-080 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MICHIGAN Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 86: Fig 1-081

Fig 1-081 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MINNESOTA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 87: Fig 1-082

Fig 1-082 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MISSOURI Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 88: Fig 1-083

Fig 1-083 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MONTANA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 89: Fig 1-084

Fig 1-084 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEBRASKA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 90: Fig 1-085

Fig 1-085 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEVADA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 91: Fig 1-086

Fig 1-086 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW HAMPSHIRE Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 92: Fig 1-087

Fig 1-087 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW JERSEY Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 93: Fig 1-088

Fig 1-088 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW MEXICO Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 94: Fig 1-089

Fig 1-089 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEW YORK Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 95: Fig 1-090

Fig 1-090 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NORTH CAROLINA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 96: Fig 1-091

Fig 1-091 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NORTH DAKOTA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 97: Fig 1-092

Fig 1-092 Probability Biden/Harris Wins OHIO Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 98: Fig 1-093

Fig 1-093 Probability Biden/Harris Wins OREGON Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 99: Fig 1-094

Fig 1-094 Probability Biden/Harris Wins PENNSYLVANIA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 100: Fig 1-095

Fig 1-095 Probability Biden/Harris Wins RHODE ISLAND Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 101: Fig 1-096

Fig 1-096 Probability Biden/Harris Wins SOUTH CAROLINA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 102: Fig 1-097

Fig 1-097 Probability Biden/Harris Wins SOUTH DAKOTA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 103: Fig 1-098

Fig 1-098 Probability Biden/Harris Wins TENNESSEE Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 104: Fig 1-099

Fig 1-099 Probability Biden/Harris Wins TEXAS Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 105: Fig 1-100

Fig 1-100 Probability Biden/Harris Wins UTAH Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 106: Fig 1-101

Fig 1-101 Probability Biden/Harris Wins VERMONT Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 107: Fig 1-102

Fig 1-102 Probability Biden/Harris Wins VIRGINIA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 108: Fig 1-103

Fig 1-103 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WASHINGTON Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 109: Fig 1-104

Fig 1-104 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WEST VIRGINIA Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 110: Fig 1-105

Fig 1-105 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WISCONSIN Using State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 111: Fig 1-106

Fig 1-106 Expected Electoral Votes Using Value of P (or S, L) on the State Election Polls from Politics_Polls

Page 112: Fig 1-107

Fig 1-107 Same as Above, But with Winner-Takes-All Scoring from Politics_Polls

Page 113: Fig 1-108

Fig 1-108 Changes from Biden's 2020 Electoral Votes Using Winner-Takes-All Scoring from Politics_Polls

Section 6: State-level Presidential Election Betting Prices from Polymarket.com

Page 114: Fig 1-109

Fig 1-109 Probability Biden/Harris Wins ARIZONA Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 115: Fig 1-110

Fig 1-110 Probability Biden/Harris Wins FLORIDA Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 116: Fig 1-111

Fig 1-111 Probability Biden/Harris Wins GEORGIA Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 117: Fig 1-112

Fig 1-112 Probability Biden/Harris Wins MICHIGAN Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 118: Fig 1-113

Fig 1-113 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NEVADA Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 119: Fig 1-114

Fig 1-114 Probability Biden/Harris Wins NORTH CAROLINA Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 120: Fig 1-115

Fig 1-115 Probability Biden/Harris Wins OHIO Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 121: Fig 1-116

Fig 1-116 Probability Biden/Harris Wins PENNSYLVANIA Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 122: Fig 1-117

Fig 1-117 Probability Biden/Harris Wins TEXAS Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 123: Fig 1-118

Fig 1-118 Probability Biden/Harris Wins WISCONSIN Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Page 124: Fig 1-119

Fig 1-119 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Based on Polymarket Betting Prices

Section 7: National Presidential Election Polls from RealClearPolling.com

Page 125: Fig 1-120

Fig 1-120 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Popular Vote Based on National Election Polls from RealClearPolling.com

Page 126: Fig 1-121

Fig 1-121 Pollsters with Positive Bias Ranked by Mean Deviation above Trendline from RealClearPolling_com

Page 127: Fig 1-122

Fig 1-122 Biden Approval Ratings from Politics_Polls

Page 128: Fig 1-123

Fig 1-123 2024 Generic Congressional Ballot % for Democrats Based on National Polls from Politics_Polls

Section 8: Summary of Results

Page 129: Fig 1-124

Fig 1-124 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Based on National Polls and Linear Trends (P)

Page 130: Fig 1-125

Fig 1-125 Probability Biden/Harris Wins Based on National Polls and Locally-Weighted Regression (L)

Page 131: Fig 1-126

Fig 1-126 Total Electoral Votes for Harris Using 538.com, Expected and Winner-Takes-All

Page 132: Fig 1-127

Fig 1-127 Total Electoral Votes for Harris Using Politics_Polls, Expected and Winner-Takes-All

Page 133: Fig 1-128

Fig 1-128 Total Electoral Votes for Harris (Average of Above), Expected and Winner-Takes-All